C. Fred Bergsten and Joseph E. Gagnon trace the history, causes, and effects of currency manipulation and analyzes a range of policy responses that the United States could adopt. The book is an indispensable guide to a complex and serious problem and what might be done to solve it.
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This volume examines the economics and politics of currency conflict, showing the connection between official foreign exchange intervention and trade imbalances, using econometric research. It outlines a practical definition of currency manipulation, with an objective test of exchange rate policy that the official sector can use for fair assessment, and assesses the effects on trading partners of countries that intervene, with a focus on effects on the US. It contends that currency manipulation accelerated the rapid technology-driven loss of manufacturing jobs before the Great Recession and slowed the subsequent economic recovery. It details norms for trade imbalances and recommended limits for currency policies and explores alternative policies that currency-intervening countries could have adopted for sound economic growth and price stability, without relying on excessive foreign exchange intervention, as well as potential policy responses in the G-20 and through the International Monetary Fund for the US and other affected countries to prevent future currency conflict and manipulation. It discusses trade and current account positions, their determinants, and their interactions with exchange rates; questions related to current account targets for individual countries and their international compatibility, the asymmetry of international financial markets, and the link to currency policies; the period of manipulation, from 2003 to 2013, and the size and economic impact on manipulators, the US, and their main trading partners; policy options for addressing this problem; and recommendations, concluding that manipulation is the main element of the currency conflict issue that needs policy attention to protect affected countries and fill the gap in the international monetary and trading systems. Annotation ©2017 Ringgold, Inc., Portland, OR (protoview.com)
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