Description
How much would it cost to meet the carbon abatement pledges made in the December 2009 Copenhagen Accord? Cline (Peterson Institute for International Economics) examines the prospective expenses, both internationally and in the twenty-five largest economies. The cost of achieving the "Copenhagen Convergence" is substantial, but surprisingly lower than expected. Using the regional integrated model of climate and the economy (RICE model), for example, abatement costs amount to 1.2 percent of the world economy by 2050. When international emissions trading and an accelerated time table are employed the amounts get even lower, along with prospective adaptation costs. Overall, this is a detailed examination of the costs of carbon offsetting and mitigation. The book contains forty pages of appendixes covering sources of data, and alternative measurement standards and policies. Annotation ©2011 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)
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This study provides alternative estimates of the costs of greenhouse gas abatement through 2050 that would be necessary to limit CO2 atmospheric concentrations to approximately 450 parts per million and limiting warming to 2°C. Specific estimates are provided for 25 major economies (with the European Union as a single economy). Business as usual baselines are first developed, based on US Department of Energy projections through 2030 and on maintenance of country-specific trends in GDP growth, energy efficiency growth, and carbon-efficiency of energy growth thereafter. The central policy simulation then involves a "Copenhagen Convergence" path, in which major economies meet their Copenhagen (December 2009) pledges for 2020, and thereafter emissions per capita decline along a path that by 2050 results in equal per capita emissions in all countries.Three abatement cost functions are used for calculating the resulting abatement costs: a model based on McKinsey & Co. estimates for 2030; the Nordhaus RICE model cost functions; and a set of summary cost regressions calculated from the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum (EMF-22) survey of abatement models. It is found that abatement costs should be moderate, reaching about one-fourth to two-thirds of one percent of GDP by 2030 and 1 to 2 percent of GDP by 2050. Costs can be reduced by international trading, but by less than generally perceived. A more ambitious early start on abatement than pledged at Copenhagen could reduce full-period costs. The study calculates corresponding magnitudes of investment for abatement as well as adaptation costs for developing countries, and identifies a benchmark of about $80 billion annually (excluding China) by 2020, lending support to the $100 billion target pledged for industrial country financial support by that year.
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