Cline (senior fellow jointly at the Center for Global Development and the Peterson Institute for International Economics) presents a study that analyzes the prospective aggregate global agricultural impact of continuing global climate change and the likely distribution of such effects both in terms of loss in agricultural potential and in proportionate agricultural income between industrial and developing countries. The study differs from previous examples in its level of geographic detail, its linking of general circulation model estimates to country climate change estimates, its use of a central or "consensus" climate projection approach, and its synthesis of summary statistical "Ricardian" models and detailed crop process models. Annotation ©2007 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR (booknews.com)
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How will global warming affect developing countries, which rely heavily on agriculture as a source of economic growth? William Cline asserts that developing countries have more at risk, such as their production capacity, than industrial countries as global warming worsens. Using general circulation models, Cline boldly examines 2071–99 to forecast the effects of global warming and its economic impact into the next decade. This detailed study outlines existing studies on climate change; Cline finds the Stern Report for the UK government's estimates most reliable; estimates projected changes in temperature, precipitation, and agricultural capacity; and concludes with policy recommendations. Cline finds that agricultural production in developing countries may fall an average of 16 percent, and if global warming progresses at its current rate, India's agricultural capacity could fall as much as 40 percent. Thus, policymakers should address this phenomenon now before the world's developing countries are adversely and irreversibly affected.
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